Nargis Referendum and regime's deadly game

A large number of foreign aid and rescue workers are needed to deal with the disaster in Irrawaddy Delta and Rangoon. Issuing visa only to a limited number of aid workers is due to the underlying issue the regime State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is dealing.

Despite international condemnation, conducting the constitutional referendum in time of national disaster crisis is a clear indication how the regime prioritizes the constitution which to be approved by this referendum and used as a legal basic to grip on power in the future.

Referendum held Saturday is only partial and will be completed only after voting takes place on 24 May in most parts of Irrawaddy Delta and Rangoon Division, hardest-hit disaster areas of deadly Nargis cyclone.

It is essential for the regime that no foreigner witnesses the way they conduct the referendum in which a massive scale cheating has been planned. There have been plenty of reports of massive cheatings during Saturday voting in most part of the country.

When referendum is held on 24 May in Irrawaddy Delta and Rangoon, number of foreign aid workers will be on the ground if they are allowed to go into the country. As junta knows these foreigners will discover cheatings during the voting, blocking them access to the country becomes unavoidable. Visa process is part of the game regime is playing to limit number of foreigners on the ground at least until 24 May.

Dilemma and options
Regime seems to have realized the pressure they have to face as a result of prolonging visa denial to aid workers for next 2 weeks. On the other hand, allowing foreigners witnessing their referendum is also totally unacceptable. To avoid the dilemma, there are mostly likely three options the regime may go through.

First and most preferable option is playing the game in which the regime continues to insist that give them aid, limit the foreign aid workers, and they promise the world aid delivery.

Junta will play this game as long as there is a split within international community in response to its game. Unconditional backing from China, Russia and some Security Council members encourages the regime to prolong the game.

As the second option, regime would agree dropping food from air. This option will allow food reaching to those survivors with minimum presence of foreigners on the ground. If this option is the case, air-dropping process would go on until the regime completes referendum in devastated areas.

Question would arise why either one of above options is not acceptable, citing continuation of disagreement with SPDC will risk more lives day by day.

If one of the above options is the case, there is huge risk of abuses by army and local officials on the ground. Democratic Voice of Burma reporters who have travelled to the disaster areas filed reports detailing how local officers are making money out of the disaster and abuse of power. In many villages survivors are deterred from searching their love-ones and cremation of bodies because the regime wants to hide the appearance that would be seen as chaos which is out of control. Abuse of power and repression are means of implementation of law and order by SPDC officials last 20 years.

Giving aid to regime or dropping food from air without or limited number of foreign aid workers on the ground will allow local officers to abuse it.

What is the most important is the expertise and skill to deal with such as a large scale natural disaster threatening 2 million people and that is some thing SPDC officials do not have at all.

Third option would be considered when both first and second options are not possible. In this option more foreign aid workers will be allowed in to the country in the condition that referendum voting in these disaster areas is cancelled. The cancellation is simply to avoid situation where foreigners witness the way the regime conducts referendum.

Cancelling referendum?
According to junta's regulation, referendum is successful if majority of eligible voters of the whole country cast the vote, not necessarily to reflect entire geographical country. Historical records show that Burma excluded some areas in general elections ever had in the past.

Regime can announce any time that total number of voters in referendum last Saturday is already a majority of total eligible voters countrywide and they have received majority of votes supporting their constitution.

The regime for sure will approve this constitution at whatever cost, but the cost is being paid by millions of victims. Again the plan to hold referendum in divested areas in 2 week time confirms how the regime underestimates the disaster and ignorance of suffering of 2 million people.

For the regime, to claim that the constitution is approved via a referendum is more important than taking care of millions of Nargis victims.